Today Florida appears even more red, Wisconsin seems even more purple and data centers appear to be the issue that moves the most voters.

Is Florida getting even deeper red and Wisconsin getting deeper purple?

Four of our leaders were their today as Republicans had a double digit lead over Democrats in primary voting tonight to make Byron Donalds the heavy favorite to become the first black Republican Governor in US history. We talked to voters as they entered the polling area, and met Carla Spalding who gave  Debbie Wasserman Schultz a closer race than expected for years ago, as there was a de ja vu about polling in Florida and Wisconsin.

These are the only two states in which the polling in the Governor’s race is EXACTLY the same as the polling between Trump and Harris was exactly two years ago.

In Florida, Republican  Byron Donalds leads David Jolly by five points, the exact margin by which Donald Trump led Kamala Harris exactly two years ago before surging eight points to win Florida by 13 points.

In Wisconsin, Democrat David Crowley leads Republican Tom Tiffany by four points, the exact margin Kamala Harris led Donald Trump by two years ago today both in Wisconsin and Nationally before Trump surged to win Wisconsin and the nation by 1 point.

So if the trend is exactly the same this year then Daniels would win by 13 and Tiffany by 1 point.

Applying the same logical to other states,Wisconsin would be one of there states in which the Governors race will be within one point – with Nevada and surprisingly Alabama based on one credible poll that was forwarded to me this week.

As we wait for candidates to return our issues questionnaires and 150,000 candidate comparisons to start our paid canvassing, several key team members spent 24 hours in Florida including volunteering to pass out literature for an hour at one polling place, as the Gubernatorial show down between Republican Byron Donalds and David Jolly became official. 

Here is the projected trend in other states we monitor if we simply do the math.

State	2 years ago	2024 Result	Latest Gov Poll	If Same Movement
National	Harris +4	Trump +1.5
Alabama	Trump +28	Trump +31	Dem +3	Tie
Florida	Trump +5	Trump +13	Rep +5	Rep +13
Georgia	Trump +2	Trump +2	Dem +5	Dem +5
Massachusetts	Harris +28	Harris +25	Dem +19	Dem +16
Michigan	Harris +4	Trump +1	Dem +9	Dem +4
Nevada	Trump +6	Trump +3	Rep +4	Rep +1
New Hampshire	Trump -7	Trump -3	Rep +6	Rep +10
Wisconsin	Harris +4	Trump +1	Dem +4	Rep +1

 

Data Centers Top Issue

And the biggest new issue wherever we canvass doors is … data centers. Those is local governments get asked by voter if any new development (not matter how small) is really a data center, and the newest ad in the Wisconsin’s governors today was a new ad asking voters to “Meet Data Center David Crowley,” just two weeks after Florida nominee Byron Daniels announced “legislation to block AI data centers from using public power, water.”

In 2022, abortion emerged as the issue that moved the most voters, and in 2024 it was inflation and the economy. While certainly you can argue based on just polling numbers that it is gas prices and the war – when you are in a community knocking on doors the issue that aciviates the most people to action is data centers.

The others interesting dynamic, and reason that our team wanted to spend time today talking to voter sin a majority-minority (more than 50% black) Congressional District in Florida, is the very interesting dynamic in potential black turnout.

If you were looking at races that might decide Congress if it comes down to the final swing districts, you would look at Alabama CD2 (which was majority black and is still 40% black and looking like a very close race) and we obvoiusly have the interesting dyanmica in a surprising candidate (due to two candidates imploding in the final month) with a chance to be the first black Governor of Wisconsin and another as the heavy favoriate to become the first black Govenror of Florida.

With our teams’ success in majority-Black districts over the decades, this could make for an interesting fall. Quan Kittler (center in photo) is our Director of Coalition Outreach, where he focuses on minority conservative outreach, urban relationship-building, and coalition voter contact and just had teams knock on thousands of doors for Vic Mellor in Providence Road Island, which Pudner has joked has the toughest fans in the country based on his trip to see Marquette games played there.

A Majority-Minotority Ground Game Built Over Decades

The Florida effort fits a much longer pattern: going into communities that political professionals too often write off, recruiting trusted local leaders, and building campaigns around direct voter contact.

Richmond, Virginia: Pudner traces the beginning of that approach to early door-to-door work in majority-Black neighborhoods in Richmond, where he personally canvassed hundreds of homes during a state Senate effort.

Charlottesville, 1997: He later worked on Paul Harris’s winning Republican primary for the Virginia House of Delegates. Harris went on to become the first Black Republican elected to the Virginia General Assembly since Reconstruction.

Mobile and Alabama, 2003: In Mobile, Pudner organized canvassers and phone teams in heavily Democratic, majority-Black neighborhoods as part of an effort that challenged the political establishment and was featured by Campaigns and Elections for the amazing result of winning inner city Mobile 68% to 32% to overcome the normally unstoppable teachers’ association, which had won the previous Presidential election for the Democratic nominee by a vote of 1503 to 2. That work expanded into winning several Democratic primaries in Majority-Minority Districts.

Cleveland: Before the 2016 Republican National Convention, Pudner won races for Frank Jackson, the black Mayor who would later oversee the successful bid for RNC to come to the city. National liberal groups were disappointed at the lack of protests from local activists, which was accomplished by black pastors telling their congregations that the Republicans visiting were their guests. Pudner predicted Trump’s win September 9, 2016, after the observation that women on Richmond city buses were noting that many black men were voting for Trump.

Shreveport, 2022: Working with Byron Shehee in the lead, the combination of local pastors, coaches, and community leaders, the team helped Tom Arceneaux win the Shreveport mayor’s race—the first time a white Republican had won a majority black district.

Learn more about our team and work at freedomandfamilyaction.com.