92% Chance of New England Republican Elected in 10 Years?
On a night where many Republicans thought to be in close races are losing by double digits across the country, the efforts of the team leaders of our 124 New England canvassers finished our canvassing efforts in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where Paul LePage is on pace to be the 1st New England Congressman elected in 10 years, and the only one to switch a seat from blue to red tonight. LePage’s incredible team had me meet with LePage in the Maine GOP HQ several years ago, and we returned to canvass doors for them late, and as we type he has an 86% chance to win according to Polymarket.
Results could take a few days for LePage, so like Kelly Ayotte it is not a sure thing, but Polymarket gives LePage a 92% chance and Ayotte 98%.
People thought I was crazy for spending the last two months in New England rather than Wisconsin, but in addition to this win, it appears New England will finish the night with the two Republican governors pictured in the photos below (Phil Scott is 99%). It appears there will be no Republican governors in the seven battleground states as Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin and Rick Jackson in Georgia trail by double digits.
Which leads to the place we sent 89 canvassers—Alabama—where Senate President Pro Tem Garlan Gudger seemed to be the only one who grasped the larger story behind our success in trying to build a never-ending campaign (see their story featuring our efforts), instead of waiting to spend millions of dollars on TV the last few months when the race is over. He started many of our 89 canvassers a year before this election to withstand the blue wave that rolled from South Carolina through Georgia to Texas tonight—but not Alabama.
Only two of our 11 Alabama candidates have lost tonight, with John Wahl running three points ahead of the GOP governor candidate at 57% and double digits ahead of Georgia next door, with three races going late into the night between a 2% lead and 1% behind in addition to the half dozen wins.
Only nine of our 222 canvassers and one of our 24 team leaders stayed in Wisconsin since we did not receive any funding for Wisconsin this cycle, though we did deliver 15,000 comparison pieces this year compared to 402,000 pieces in 2024.
In addition to the canvassing, we crisscrossed New England the final week for great rallies and apparent victories against the political tide for Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire) and Phil Scott (Vermont), who appear to be wrapping up late-night wins.
Two years ago, when Turning Point’s Brandon Maly and I were 24/7 figuring out how to turn out every conservative in Wisconsin, no one would have believed both of us would be 24/7 in New England of all places. It appears we close the night with two New England Governors and the seven Battleground states have none.
